Reuters conveying the information that OPEC+ is preparing to fast-track oil output hikes through October and may scrap 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of voluntary production cuts by November if member compliance does not improve. Reuters cite according to five sources.

The decision follows April’s surprise move to raise output faster than expected, a strategy reportedly led by Saudi Arabia to penalise members falling short of their quotas. A fresh increase for June was agreed over the weekend, pushing total planned hikes from April to June to nearly 1 million bpd. Another 411,000 bpd is expected to be approved for July, with further increases likely through October.

“The market will take this news negatively, as long as crude exports do not suggest improved compliance within OPEC+,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo warned.

Saudi Arabia also issued a warning on non-compliance during the latest meeting, one source said. Kazakhstan has already openly defied the group, with its energy minister saying national interests take precedence.

If laggards like Iraq and Kazakhstan fail to compensate for overproduction, the group could fully unwind the voluntary cuts — originally planned to remain in place until late 2026 — as early as November.

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Oil futures trade begins soon, update as of Friday;

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.